Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 7 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 18 July 2026 at 21:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 46th strongest of the 109 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 7 July 2026. 8 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 18 at 4:37PM EDT until July 18 at 5:15PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA
Urban PEI: 44,118 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- July 22, 2026 · score 43 · 7.8 km
- September 3, 2026 · 8.3 km
- August 10, 2026 · score 43 · 12.0 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.79/1 |
| Coordinates | 38.1692, -77.1786 |
| Nearest City | Fredericksburg (29 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 44.1K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-18T20:37:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7f6e935468cae11cc07c77ee649ef864 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-18T20:37:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-18T20:38:57.824Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Amelia, VA; Cumberland, VA; Nottoway, VA; Powhatan, VA; Prince Edward, VA; Essex, VA; King and Queen, VA; King William, VA; Amherst, VA; Bedford, VA and 5 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 18 at 4:37PM EDT until July 18 at 5:15PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA |
| Expires | 2026-07-18T17:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Wakefield VA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 8 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7f6e935468cae11cc07c77ee649ef864e02df6c2.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e26520fffb148e9727cef9b371a49274c8565111.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e0732878f5e5253b512fcebae3ceb97c1ea69822.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5a8e71b0d42d4b6881370d0a7b9bdd5c69023f2b.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.75e96751e598ddd9275944574119937963cd5afe.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3269b4e89fc09652357e191dfd4f040526580bb1.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.33e77d4e7d8bf8ed25615f7cca1100713feb2b2b.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d3bb8ce1b48a9348b16eae082b42b46ebf25a69f.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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